CASE STUDY
Angola–Namibia Transmission Line Project
Market Analysis and Modelling

Project Details

  • Client
    ANNA
  • Date
    2017
  • Lead
    Enerweb
  • Associate
    Aurecon AMEI Ltd

The planned Angola-Namibia (ANNA) interconnector is expected to link the Namibian and Angolan electricity networks in the north-western part of Namibia and the southern part of Angola and initially supply power to towns in the southern part of Angola, mainly Xangongo, Cahama and Ondjiva.

This interconnector will also make provision for the integration of the proposed Baynes Hydro Power Station into the NamPower and RNT electricity networks.

Aurecon was responsible for the technical network modelling and preliminary design, with Enerweb undertaking the business case quantification based on detailed market analysis to inform the other elements of the project, e.g. preferred commercial structure, and financial and economic justification.

Detailed Market Analysis (Enerweb). The detailed market analysis was a refinement of the high-level preliminary market analysis based on the BOSA model developed above. The refinement was based on both the high-level analysis in the concept phase and additional insights through analysis of collected data.

The preliminary market analysis was supported by public information and high-level data provided by stakeholders. In this phase the market model was populated with detailed information to be obtained through data collection, interviews with stakeholders and workshops, for example:

  • Historical technical performance of existing power plant.
  • Historical fuel, O&M and investment costs of existing power plant.
  • Cross-border transaction statistics (bilateral and DAM), capacity status and reservation on existing transmission interconnectors.
  • Historical availability of hydro resource, as well as any studies conducted relating to climate change.
  • Assessment of regional economic growth forecasts to determine potential future load centres in relation to the proposed project.
  • Internal transmission constraints, transmission network loading and historical availability.
  • Planned generation and transmission expansion plans.
  • Planned performance, economic and technical parameters for committed, uncommitted and generic future electricity generation options.
  • Assessment of the SAPP trading rules and their implications for the project and the implications of the project on the existing SAPP market rules.
  • Review of the current and envisaged bilateral cross-border Power Purchase (PPAs) and Power Sales Agreements (PSAs) volumes in the SAPP to determine the potential utilisation of the proposed project.

The result of the detailed market analysis was used to assess the project viability and was a set of credible scenarios with the following outputs:

  • Projected usage of the ANNA interconnector, both in terms of capacity and energy.
  • Impact on the investment, O&M and fuel costs per generator.
  • Impact on the regional market and trading opportunities in SAPP.
  • Interaction with other SAPP initiatives and objectives.

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